What I find noteworthy is that there is an implied peculiar fatalism about the market when only two platforms are considered viable, neither of which are more than 3 years old. While visiting the Mobile World Congress, I sensed this jumping to conclusions about platforms was eerily similar to that of a few years ago when new entrants like Apple and Google were declared dead on arrival.
I can only conclude that there is a great deal of groupthink going on in the industry. A perfect setting for a disruptive entrant to change everything, all over again.
Aside from a potential disruptive entrant, the incumbents themselves are showing unparalleled innovation. iOS 4.0 seriously upped the ante and I believe Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) is going to be big for Google.